The growth of the country will slow to 3,1 % in 2026, down from 3,5 % in 2025, the IMF International Monetary Fond concluded. It will converge around 3 % in the medium time, while inflation might rise up to about 4,5 % in 2026 compared to the current 3 %.
The IMF gave a concluding Statement at the end of its mission to the country, a regular procedure of IMF.
They had a meeting with the Minister of Finance on March 31st. The Minister stated that the commitment to fiscal consolidation and sustainable economic growth has been reaffirmed (see here).
The IMF affirmed the robust growth and decline in inflation, but noted that the ongoing war in the Middle East will weight on this. IMF is concerned with energy affordability and a rising commercial deficit. The country relies also on oil for electricity production. IMF also criticized that major public borrowings with state guarantees have been moved outside of the budget to public enterprises and ESM, making deficits not recorded in the budget. They also noted that ESM sells electricity below cost, subsidizing the economy.
IMF also recommended to the National bank to increase the main interest rate on future public debt bonds (instead of having discounts in auctions), to raise reserve requirements for banks and to retain more of its profits (instead on transferring it to the government budget). This would fight inflation and increase the possibilities for the National Bank to react quickly in times of economic insecurity.
A weakening growth in the EU and higher energy prices, together with cost overruns in large infrastructure projects and ad-hoc wage increases could derail fiscal consolidation. Government support in the current crisis should be strictly targeted and a stronger reform implementation would improve the economic outlook.
A specific reform area mentioned are labor market reforms to reduce barriers to work for certain segments in the population and to reduce the mismatch between skills available and skills in demand. Wage growth should be in relation to productivity gains.
See the full IMF report here.
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