Belgian-Macedonian Business Club

The Luxembourg think tank IDEA has published its Avis Annuel 2026, titled “Dissonances”, offering a comprehensive analysis of Luxembourg’s and the international economic landscape. This report arrives at a critical juncture, as the global economy grapples with renewed geopolitical tensions and structural challenges. Less than a year after the escalation of protectionist measures on “Liberation Day,” the world faces another wave of transatlantic tensions, casting a shadow over economic recovery and stability.

The Global Economic Landscape: Risks and Uncertainties

The Avis Annuel 2026 highlights the ongoing transatlantic tensions as the primary risk factor for the global and European economies. The energy shock triggered by these tensions remains difficult to assess, as its depth, duration, and resolution depend on both geopolitical decisions and the effectiveness of economic policies across major blocs. The ripple effects of this crisis threaten to undermine the fragile recovery observed in Luxembourg and beyond, complicating efforts to return to a sustained growth trajectory.

Four years after the economic disruptions caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Luxembourg’s economy has yet to regain its footing. The report warns that the current geopolitical and economic environment could further constrain policy options, leaving Luxembourg in a “new world” of near-stagnation.

Socio-economic challenges that policymakers must address:

• Mitigating the Impact of Energy Shocks: Policymakers are urged to develop strategies that cushion the economy from volatile energy prices and supply disruptions.
• Strengthening Economic Resilience: The report calls for policies that enhance Luxembourg’s ability to withstand external shocks, including diversifying economic partnerships and investing in sustainable infrastructure.
• Addressing Structural Inequalities: The Avis Annuel emphasizes the need to tackle inequalities exacerbated by economic instability, ensuring that growth benefits all segments of society.

A key component of the Avis Annuel 2026 is the Consensus Économique d’IDEA, a survey of 114 economic, political, and social stakeholders in Luxembourg. This survey provides a unique perspective on the current economic climate and future priorities:

• Perceptions of the Current Conjuncture: Stakeholders express cautious optimism about Luxembourg’s economic prospects but remain deeply concerned about external risks, particularly geopolitical instability and energy market volatility.
• Priorities for the Future: Respondents highlight the importance of fostering innovation, enhancing competitiveness, and ensuring social cohesion as critical priorities for Luxembourg’s economic agenda.

The International Dimension

• Protectionism and Trade Frictions: The report underscores the risks posed by rising protectionism and trade tensions, which threaten to fragment global supply chains and disrupt economic cooperation.
• The Role of Economic Blocs: The analysis suggests that the ability of major economic blocs – such as the EU, the U.S., and China – to coordinate policies will be pivotal in mitigating the fallout from current crises.
• Energy Transition and Sustainability: The report calls for accelerated efforts to transition to sustainable energy sources, reducing dependence on volatile fossil fuel markets and enhancing long-term economic stability.

Conclusion: Charting a Path Forward

For the Belgian-Macedonian Business Club (BMBC), the Avis Annuel 2026 offers a critical lens through which to view the evolving economic landscape. By understanding these challenges and opportunities, businesses can better position themselves to thrive in an increasingly interconnected yet volatile global economy.

IDEA report “Avis annuel 2026: Dissonances” (in french language)

IDEA is an autonomous and open think tank, created 2014 on the initiative of the Luxembourg Chamber of Commerce.