As tanker traffic through the world’s most critical energy choke point grinds to a halt, businesses in Belgium, North Macedonia, and across Europe face a reckoning with inflation, supply chain disruption, and strategic vulnerability.
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A Choke point That Holds the World
The Strait of Hormuz — a slender corridor between Iran and Oman just 33 kilometers wide at its narrowest — is the jugular vein of global energy. For decades, its theoretical closure has been the scenario that energy security analysts prayed would never materialize. As of 2 March 2026, that scenario is no longer theoretical.
Following coordinated US and Israeli strikes on Iran under “Operation Epic Fury,” and the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared the strait closed, threatening to set ablaze any vessel attempting to transit. Within hours, tanker traffic that normally carries one-fifth of the world’s daily oil supply dropped precipitously. By 3 March, automatic vessel identification signals had gone dark in the strait.
The geopolitical dimension is compounded by a supply chain reality: ships rerouting around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope add two to three weeks to transit times, collapsing the just-in-time logistics systems that have underpinned European industrial production for a generation. This is not merely an energy crisis — it is a supply chain, inflation, and strategic solvency shock unfolding in real time.
Risks for Europe: The Broad Picture
Europe enters this crisis in a structurally different position than 1973, but not necessarily a safer one. The continent has dramatically diversified away from Russian energy since 2022 — Norwegian pipeline gas and US LNG now dominate its import mix. However, this very diversification has created new vulnerabilities.
Energy Price Inflation
The immediate transmission mechanism is price. Brent crude crossed $83 per barrel within days of the crisis breaking; $100 – $120 per barrel seem possible if the disruption persists beyond one month. For Europe, this translates directly into higher pump prices, elevated heating costs, and soaring electricity bills — all at a moment when the European Central Bank had only just begun a cautious rate-cutting cycle.
LNG Market Tightening
Qatar — one of Europe’s key LNG suppliers — accounts for roughly a fifth of global LNG production, and its facilities have been directly targeted in Iran’s retaliatory strikes. Even if Qatar’s output resumes quickly, the psychological and logistical impact on LNG spot markets will keep European gas prices elevated. The US LNG supply buffer — now critical to European security after Russian supply cuts — may itself face complications if Gulf tanker routes remain compromised.
Industrial Input Costs
Europe’s industrial base — chemicals, pharmaceuticals, automotive, steel, fertilisers — is acutely sensitive to energy prices. The 2022 Russian gas shock triggered temporary and permanent shutdowns across these sectors. A prolonged Hormuz disruption risks repeating that playbook, with particular damage to energy-intensive export sectors in Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands.
Supply Chain Elongation
Beyond energy, the strait serves as a passage for plastics, fertilizer and industrial chemicals. With rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope adding two to three weeks to schedules, just-in-time production systems — already tested by the COVID-19 crisis — face another severe stress test.
Inflationary Feedback Loops
Energy and logistics cost increases will feed into consumer price inflation within four to eight weeks at consumer level, limiting the ECB’s room to cut rates further. For European governments already managing high public debt, the fiscal space to cushion the blow — as was deployed in 2022 through energy price caps and subsidies — is considerably narrower in 2026.
Belgium: A Significant LNG Hub Under Pressure
Belgium occupies a paradoxical position in this crisis. It operates one of Europe’s major LNG import terminals at Zeebrugge, making it both a critical piece of European energy infrastructure and a country with high throughput exposure to any disruption in LNG supply chains. The EU was already moving to terminate a dependency on Russian energy imports with a full ban scheduled for 2028. The Hormuz crisis intersects with that transition at a particularly delicate moment.
Belgium’s industrial base — centred on chemicals (BASF, Solvay, Ineos), petrochemicals in Antwerp and Ghent, and pharmaceutical manufacturing — is among the most energy-intensive in Europe. The Port of Antwerp-Bruges, Europe’s second-largest seaport and the world’s largest chemical cluster, is directly exposed to both elevated feedstock costs and elongated supply chains for Asian industrial inputs.
Belgium’s open economy means that global price shocks transmit rapidly into domestic costs. Belgian manufacturing SMEs, many of which operate on thin margins as suppliers to larger automotive and chemical groups, are particularly vulnerable to simultaneous increases in energy bills, logistics costs, and working capital pressures.
On the demand side, Belgian consumers will feel higher pump prices and heating costs quickly. Inflation, which had only recently retreated to manageable levels, risks re-accelerating — complicating wage negotiations in an economy with strong automatic index-linking mechanisms that can entrench price pressures.
North Macedonia: Small Economy, Amplified Vulnerability
North Macedonia is, as energy analysts note plainly, “fully dependent on oil and gas imports.” Unlike larger EU member states with diversified energy mixes and strategic reserve buffers, North Macedonia has limited capacity to absorb an international energy price shock. The 2022 energy crisis exposed vulnerabilities acutely, with gas prices more than doubling and electricity prices for industry surging before a partial recovery in 2023 while the state budget had to cover a large burden to absorb the shock for its citizens.
North Macedonia’s economic structure amplifies the risk. The economy is highly open to trade. Special Economic Zones specializing in automotive component assembly, electrical wiring, and electronics manufacturing depend heavily on stable energy costs and uninterrupted supply chains, but even more on uninterrupted demand from its industrial customers in other countries. A prolonged energy price shock could undermine the demand and have a direct impact on exports and employment.
The macroeconomic picture adds additional fragility. An external energy shock forcing inflation higher would constrain the central bank’s ability to cut rates in support of growth, while rising import costs widen an already significant current account deficit. The denar is pegged to the euro, limiting monetary flexibility as a shock absorber.
For businesses operating in or with North Macedonia, the risks are not merely macroeconomic. The country’s natural gas supply — distributed through pipelines from Bulgaria and soon from Greece — remains ultimately exposed to Balkan transit infrastructure and international LNG market dynamics. Any tightening of European gas supply will reduce the buffers available to Southeastern Europe’s less-connected markets first.
What Companies Should Do Now: A Practical Roadmap
History suggests that companies that act in the first weeks of a crisis preserve significantly more value than those that wait for clarity. The 1973 oil shock or the 2022 Russian gas crisis all rewarded early movers who secured supply, hedged exposure, and communicated proactively with stakeholders. The following steps are calibrated to the current situation.
01 Audit your energy exposure immediately. Map which of your operations, cost structures, and contracts carry direct exposure to oil and gas prices. Identify any supply contracts that lack price escalation clauses or that reference Brent crude benchmarks. Quantify the P&L impact of a sustained $100/barrel oil price scenario.
02 Review and accelerate hedging strategies. Companies with oil or gas as a significant cost input should engage immediately with treasury teams and financial advisors on commodity hedging options. Forward contracts and options strategies used prudently can lock in costs over a 3 – 12 month window, providing the breathing room to manage operations without emergency repricing of customer contracts.
03 Map your supply chain for Hormuz exposure. Any component, raw material, or finished product transiting through the Persian Gulf is at risk of delay or unavailability. Identify tier-1 and tier-2 suppliers with exposure. Begin conversations about alternative sourcing, inventory build, and lead time adjustments. The Cape of Good Hope rerouting adds 2–3 weeks — factor this into your production scheduling now.
04 Review contracts for force majeure applicability. Consult legal counsel on whether current supply disruptions qualify as force majeure events under your key commercial contracts. Understand your obligations and protections on both the customer and supplier side. Proactive notification of customers about potential delays, accompanied by revised delivery timelines, is far preferable to reactive communication after a default.
05 Engage your banks and credit lines early. Energy price shocks and supply disruptions increase working capital requirements. Extended logistics cycles tie up cash. Reach out proactively to your banking relationships to discuss the adequacy of existing credit facilities and the terms under which they could be extended. Banks respect customers who identify problems early and come with plans.
06 Explore alternative sourcing geographies. For companies sourcing from Gulf states or relying on LNG-dependent energy, identify whether European, North American, or African suppliers can provide temporary substitution. This will not be cost-neutral, but securing supply continuity at elevated cost is better than halting production.
07 Communicate transparently with customers and partners. Use the current moment to brief key customers on your situation, your action plan, and realistic delivery expectations. Companies that communicate clearly and early build trust even through disruption. Those that go silent until a crisis forces a disclosure suffer lasting reputational damage.
08 Monitor policy responses and available support. The EU has activated emergency energy provisions before and may do so again. Belgium’s federal government and regional authorities have historically deployed energy subsidy mechanisms during price shocks. North Macedonian businesses should monitor EU Growth Plan disbursements and IMF programme conditions, which may offer liquidity support channels. Engage your chamber of commerce and industry associations to stay informed and to coordinate industry-level responses.
09 Accelerate energy efficiency investments. Each crisis is simultaneously a structural inflection point. Companies that used the 2022 energy shock to invest in efficiency measures, on-site renewables, and heat pumps have materially lower exposure today. This crisis provides renewed financial justification for such investments — and in many cases, EU and national subsidy frameworks remain available to support them.
10 Prepare a scenario-based financial plan. Model three scenarios: a rapid de-escalation within 4 weeks (markets partially recover), a medium disruption of 2–4 months (sustained high energy prices, significant supply chain disruption), and a prolonged conflict (structural reshaping of energy supply routes). Each scenario implies different liquidity, pricing, and sourcing decisions. Having the scenarios prepared in advance allows faster, calmer decision-making as the situation evolves.
The Longer View: Strategic Resilience
Every major energy shock in the past half-century has accelerated the pre-existing direction of travel in European energy policy. The 1973 crisis created the IEA’s strategic reserves architecture. The 2022 Russian shock supercharged LNG infrastructure investment and renewable energy deployment across Europe. The current Hormuz crisis will likely accelerate Europe’s push toward energy self-sufficiency — including faster renewable buildout, greater storage capacity, and deeper intra-European grid integration.
For businesses, the strategic insight is this: companies that build structural resilience — through energy efficiency, supply chain diversification, and balance sheet robustness — are not just better crisis survivors. They emerge as stronger competitive players when markets normalize. The disruption, however painful in the short term, is a forcing function for adaptation that many organizations have been deferring for years.
Our chamber stands ready to facilitate connections, share intelligence, and coordinate advocacy with Belgian and North Macedonian government authorities. We will be active for members and continue to update you via our media and direct communication.
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