Lack of Kerosene disturbs supply chain of air freighted goods
Kerosene supplies in Europe dry up as no jet fuel has reached Europe from Middle East in April. 0,5 of 1,6 mio barrel of Kerosene used in Europe has to be imported. IAE has warned that only half of the gap could be replaceable, eg. from the US. Also concerned is Asia. (Source)
Several airlines have maintained that they do not see a problem and that their fuel supply is hedged. Other airlines have started to reduce their flight offer. Kerosene cost is 20 to 30 % of the ticket price. Kerosene prices have increased from 2,031 in January to 4,27 US$/gallon on April 27th.
A lower and more expensive offer does not only have an impact on tourism, but also on air freight. Pharmaceuticals, spare parts and high tech elements use air freight extensively.
| February 27th | April 30th | |
| Brent crude oil | 71,32 US$ | 121,48 US$ |
| Gas (TTF 1 month) | 31,51 € | 47,835 € (June) |
Oil and gas prices continue to rise.
Cost increase expected for
- Fertilizer
- Plastic products
- Rubber
- Aluminum
- Helium
- Sulphur
- Computer chips
- Wheat
- Fruits and vegetables
- Air fares
ECB expects the macroeconomic backdrop today more benign than in 2022. They have created two scenarios (Source):
- Adverse scenario: assumes that the shock intensifies but its duration is relatively short, containing its propagation through the economy. Relative to the baseline, annual inflation moves almost one percentage point higher this year but falls back steeply by 2028, as indirect and second-round effects are outweighed by a large energy-related base effect. Growth would be somewhat lower in 2026 and 2027, before recovering in 2028.
- Severe scenario: assumes greater intensity, longer duration and broader, more persistent propagation. Relative to the baseline, annual inflation would be significantly higher across the horizon – by almost three percentage points in 2027 – and would not return to target within the projection period. Growth would be notably weaker in 2026 and 2027, by almost one percentage point cumulatively, before rebounding in 2028.
See also the BMBC article: The Strait of Hormuz Crisis: What Companies Must Do Now and what it means for Belgium and North Macedonia
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